Quantifying the Dynamic Sales Impact of Location-Based Mobile Promotion Technologies

Location-based mobile promotion (LMP) is believed to trigger spontaneous and impulsive purchases. This field study quantifies the dynamic impact of LMP, using aggregated daily mobile movie promotions and purchase data from over 3 million real-world users of a large mobile service provider. The developed multivariate time-series models confirm that LMP has a significant contemporaneous impact on movie ticket sales. Surprisingly, Bayesian vector autoregressive results also suggest that LMP has significant immediate (next day) and cumulative impacts on sales over the next 9 days. The immediate and cumulative impacts account for 66% of the total effects. These findings suggest that without considering the dynamic effects, practitioners and researchers may substantially under-estimate the value of LMP.